As 2024 came to a close, it was clear that no country had undergone as much change from the beginning until the end more than Syria. After years of mostly frozen lines of control, economic decline, and the complete stagnation of any political process on the country, the Ba’ath regime of the Assad family finally collapsed in a matter of weeks, following a sudden offensive that began localized in the western Aleppo country-side and ended with the capture of Damascus by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a UN- and US-designated terrorist organization that was Al-Qaeda’s official Syrian affiliate for years.

People of Qamishli, Syria toppled the city’s statue of Hafez al-Assad following the collapse of the Assad regime

While the collapse of the regime is seen as a positive event and a real opportunity for change by the Syrian people, there has never been more uncertainty about the direction the country will take. The Autonomous Administration of North East Syria (AANES) has taken several major steps as the regime collapsed and Damascus was taken by HTS-led forces, to stabilize the region, to ensure that ISIS cannot take advantage of the vacuum left by the disintegration of the Syrian Army, and to pave the way for negotiations for Syria’s political process.

In early December, the decision was taken by the Autonomous Administration’s Joint Presidency to raise the green Syrian flag, the same flag flown by the Syrian independence movement since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, and declare it as one of the two the official flags of northeast Syria, alongside the flag of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES). In using the most widely-adopted flag of anti-regime forces, the symbolism is intended to show unity with the rest of the country in the wake of Assad’s defeat.

The Joint-Presidency of the AANES announces the adoption of Syria’s new flag.

To ensure security did not completely collapse, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Internal Security Forces (ISF), with support from the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, took steps to take control of the entire Deir-ez-Zor region east of the Euphrates, as well as towns south of Raqqa. These forces temporarily moved into Deir-ez-Zor city itself. This was an essential step to guarantee that ISIS, which has been reconstituting itself for years in the Badia Desert of Central Syria, did not attempt to re-establish itself territorially with the dissolution of the regime’s security forces. The Coalition provided support in the form of dozens of airstrikes on ISIS targets in central Syria.

People of northeast Syria demonstrated in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces, waving the flags of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Syrian independence, and the YPJ (Women’s Protection Units).

Furthermore, the French and American governments dispatched diplomatic representatives to supervise and support the renewal of Kurdish unity talks, in an attempt to strengthen the position of Syria’s diverse northeast region ahead of negotiations with the new Damascus government. Results from the first meetings between the parties were reported to be positive. Both Germany and France have also emphasized their support for northeast Syria’s inclusion in any new Syrian Government, and for the Autonomous Administration’s position that Syria’s diverse population of many ethnic and religious minorities must be protected and respected. 

Numerous challenges have also presented themselves, most notably the renewed offensives by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) militias, as well as the Turkish military itself, against northeast Syria. While HTS and the SDF focused on establishing control over formerly regime-held territory, the SNA attacked Tal Rifaat and the Shehba region, forcibly destabilizing the IDPs of Afrin – people who had spent the past seven years living there in camps waiting to go home. With Coalition mediation, the SDF was able to evacuate the IDPs to the Tabqa and Raqqa regions, where the Autonomous Administration is now attempting to provide aid to them, as conditions have continued to deteriorate with the onset of winter. However, continuous Turkish airstrikes on the region’s civilian infrastructure have stretched the resources of northeast Syria thin. The Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafiyeh neighborhoods, governed by Autonomous Administration structures and secured by the SDF and ISF, have been mostly stable. According to SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi, SDF and HTS have been able to come to understandings on security surrounding regions where their territories now border each other.

Temporary housing for the IDPS of Shehba, organized by the AANES and Kurdish Red Crescent in Tabqa, Syria

Following the occupation of the Shehba region, the SNA, supported by Turkish airpower and artillery, launched an offensive against the city of Manbij. The city had been liberated in 2016 by the SDF with US support and support from the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS from ISIS. After several weeks of intense fighting, the SDF agreed to withdraw from the city in order to ensure civilians would remain unharmed, either remaining in the city or while withdrawing. This was part of a US-mediated ceasefire that came into force surrounding Manbij, the Tishreen Dam, and the region around Kobani, the famous Kurdish city where the Coalition-SDF partnership was born, and the tide was turned against ISIS in 2014. Despite the ceasefire, the SNA have continued attacks, especially against the Tishreen Dam, which threaten to cut off electricity for hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Numerous war crimes, including looting, executing wounded prisoners, and extrajudicial murder of civilians have been documented as being carried out by SNA fighters. Some of the documentation came from footage recorded by the fighters themselves.

US military representatives from the US-led Coalition delivering humanitarian aid to the displaced people of Shehba in Raqqa, Syria.

The SDF has effectively countered the Turkish-backed attacks, managing to halt the advances of the SNA at the Euphrates River, and even counter-attack to create a buffer zone around the Tishreen Dam and Qarakozach Bridge. SNA attacks towards Tabqa against the towns of Deir Hafer and Maskanah have been repelled. Several Turkish drones have been shot down by the SDF as well, and they have continued operations against ISIS cells in Raqqa, Hasakah, and Deir-ez-Zor while resisting attacks from the SNA and Turkey.

A Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone and a Syrian National Army tank, respectively shot down and captured by the SDF near the Tishreen Dam

The collapse of the regime has led to a renewed interest in Syria by the international community. For the first time in years, Germany, France, the United States, and other major powers have all dispatched top officials to Damascus to engage with local organizations and actors on the ground. Their expectations, especially with regards to the lifting of sanctions, have been outlined to the new Damascus administration. These include the respect and inclusion of minorities in Syria’s governance, integration of the Autonomous Administration’s security forces, and rejecting religious oppression. While challenges and uncertainty will continue for Syria into 2025, there is a clear desire by the Syrian people to seize the opportunity that now exists to create a pluralistic Syria that is inclusive, democratic, and sovereign.